Predicting Duration

Operating room scheduling data base analysis for scheduling.
(last updated 05/21/08)

2008

Dexter F, Dexter EU, Masursky D, Nussmeier NA. Systematic review of general thoracic surgery articles to identify predictors of operating room case durations. Anesthesia & Analgesia 106: 1232-1241, 2008 [PDF]

Combes C, Meskens N, Rivat C, Vandamme JP. Using a KDD process to forecast the duration of surgery. International Journal of Production Economics 112: 279-293, 2008

2007

Dexter F, Macario A, Ledolter J. Identification of systematic underestimation (bias) of case durations during case scheduling would not markedly reduce overutilized operating room time. Journal of Clinical Anesthesia 19:198-203, 2007

Wachtel RE, Dexter F. A simple method for deciding when patients should be ready on the day of surgery without procedure-specific data. Anesthesia & Analgesia 105:127-140, 2007 [PDF]

2006

Dexter F, Davis M, Halbeis CE, Marjamaa R, Marty J, McIntosh C, Nakata Y, Thenuwara KN, Sawa T, Vigoda M. Mean operating room times differ by 50% among hospitals in different countries for laparoscopic cholecystectomy and lung lobectomy. Journal of Anesthesia 20:319-322, 2006

Dexter F, Yue JC, Dow AJ. Predicting anesthesia times for diagnostic and interventional radiological procedures. Anesthesia & Analgesia 102:1491-1500, 2006

Ehrenwerth J, Escobar A, Davis EA, Watrous GA, Fisch GS, Kain ZN, Barash PG. Can the attending anesthesiologist accurately predict the duration of anesthesia induction? Anesthesia & Analgesia 103:938-940, 2006

Escobar A, Davis EA, Ehrenwerth J, Watrous GA, Fisch GS, Kain ZN, Barash PG. Task analysis of the preincision surgical period: an independent observer-based study of 1558 cases. Anesthesia & Analgesia 103:922-927, 2006

Pandit JJ, Carey A. Estimating the duration of common elective operations: implications for operating list management. Anaesthesia 61:768-776, 2006

2005

Dexter F, Ledolter J. Bayesian prediction bounds and comparisons of operating room times even for procedures with few or no historic data. Anesthesiology 103:1259-1267, 2005 [PDF]

Dexter F, Macario A, Epstein RH, Ledolter J. Validity and usefulness of a method to monitor surgical services’ average bias in scheduled case durations. Canadian Journal of Anesthesia 52:935-939, 2005

2004

Spangler WE, Strum DP, Vargas LG, May JM. Estimating procedure times for surgeries by determining location parameters for the lognormal model. Health Care Management Science 7:97-104, 2004

2003

Broka SM, Jamart J, Louagie YA. Scheduling of elective surgical cases within allocated block-times: can the future be drawn from the experience of the past? Acta Chirurgica Belgica 103:90-94, 2003

Celik J. Decreasing preoperative delays- a rapid process improvement project. AORN Journal 77:737-741, 2003

Lebowitz P. Why can't my procedures start on time? AORN Journal 77:594-597, 2003

Senapati PS, Barry JD, Edwards P, Hodzovic I, Shute K, Lewis WG. Surgical time and motion: the intermediate equivalent revisited. Annals of The Royal College of Surgeons of England 85:40-3, 2003

Strum DP, May JH, Sampson AR, Vargas LG, Spangler WE. Estimating times of surgeries with two component procedures: comparison of the lognormal and normal models. Anesthesiology 98:232-240, 2003

2002

Dexter F, Traub RD, Fleisher LA, Rock P. What sample sizes are required for pooling surgical case durations among facilities to decrease the incidence of procedures with little historical data? Anesthesiology 96:1230-1236, 2002

2001

Sorge M. Computerized O.R. scheduling: is it an accurate predictor of surgical time? Canadian Operating Room Nursing Journal 19(4):7-18, 2001

Stausberg J, Lang H, Obertacke U, Rauhut F. Classifications in routine use - Lessons from ICD-9 and ICPM in surgical practice. Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 8:92-100, 2001

2000

Dexter F, Traub RD. Statistical method for predicting when patients should be ready on the day of surgery. Anesthesiology 93:1107-1114, 2000

Dexter F, Macario A. What is the relative frequency of uncommon ambulatory surgery procedures in the United States with an anesthesia provider? Anesthesia & Analgesia 90:1343-1347, 2000

May JH, Strum DP, Vargas LG. Fitting the lognormal distribution to surgical procedure times. Decision Sciences 31:129-148, 2000

Strum DP, May JH, Vargas LG. Modeling the uncertainty of surgical procedure times: comparison of the log-normal and normal models. Anesthesiology 92:1160-1167, 2000

Strum DP, Sampson AR, May JH, Vargas LG. Surgeon and type of anesthesia predict variability in surgical procedure times. Anesthesiology 92:1454-1466, 2000

1999

Dexter F, Traub RD, Qian F. Comparison of statistical methods to predict the time to complete a series of surgical cases. Journal of Clinical Monitoring and Computing 15:45-51, 1999

Macario A, Dexter F. Estimating the duration of a case when the surgeon has not recently performed the procedure at the surgical suite. Anesthesia & Analgesia 89:1241-1245, 1999

Zhou J, Dexter F, Macario A, Lubarsky DA. Relying solely on historical surgical times to estimate accurately future surgical times is unlikely to reduce the average length of time cases finish late. Journal of Clinical Anesthesia 11:601-605, 1999

1996

Wright IH, Kooperberg C, Bonar BA, Bashein G. Statistical modeling to predict elective surgery time. Anesthesiology 85:1235-1245, 1996

1991

Opit LJ, Collins REC, Campbell G. Use of operating theatres: the effects of case-mix and training in general surgery. Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England. 73:389-393, 1991

1990

Shukla RK, Ketcham JS, Ozcan YA. Comparison of subjective versus data base approaches for improving efficiency of operating room scheduling. Health Services Management Research 3:74-81, 1990

Weiss EN. Models for determining estimated start times and case orderings in hospital operating rooms. IIE Transactions 22:143-150, 1990

1988

Hancock WM, Walter PF, More RA, Glick ND. Operating room scheduling data base analysis for scheduling. Journal of Medical Systems 12:397-409, 1988

1970

Goldman J, Knappenberger HA, Shearon WT. A study of variability of surgical estimates. Hospital Management 110:46-46D, 1970